TY - Generic T1 - Runoff forecasting for reservoir operations - the past and the future T2 - 50th Annual Western Snow Conference Y1 - 1982 A1 - Speers, D.D. A1 - Versteeg, J.D. KW - Models - snowmelt, Water Supply Forecasting AB - Two techniques of long range water supply forecasting are compared for the Detroit Dam watershed, a 'rain-on-snow' basin in Western Oregon. A traditional multiple regression procedure has been employed to forecast spring runoff, which is of operational interest for refill of the reservoir. The second approach involves the use of a continuous, conceptual hydrologic model, the SSARR model. Comparing an 11 year test period, a similar degree of accuracy was achieved with each type of forecast. The paper illustrates, however, that the use of a hydrologic model can provide advantages over the statistical forcast, namely: (1) improved accuracy in a real-time setting through continuous adjustments of model parameters to observed conditions; (2) a greater variety of forecast products, including short term flood forecasts and probabalistic estimates incorporating a reservoir model. JF - 50th Annual Western Snow Conference T3 - Proceedings of the 50th Annual Western Snow Conference PB - Western Snow Conference CY - Reno, Nevada UR - sites/westernsnowconference.org/PDFs/1982Speers.pdf ER -