TY - Generic T1 - Evaluation of Streamflow Forecasts for Multiple Basins in the Pacific Northwest Using an Enhanced Version of the Snowmelt Runoff Model T2 - 75th Annual Western Snow Conference Y1 - 2007 A1 - Harshburger, B.J. A1 - Moore, B.C. A1 - Blandford, T.R. A1 - Humes, K.S. A1 - Walden, V.P. KW - Snowmelt runoff, streamflow forecasts, SRM, Downscaled forecasts, GFS AB - Runoff in mountainous areas of the Pacific Northwest is largely dominated by snowmelt. Thus accurate streamflow forecasts are critical for the management of water resource systems. The objective of this project is to develop a short to medium range streamflow prediction system (1 to 15 days) based on the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) for mountainous basins in the Pacific Northwest. Enhancements were made to the model to optimize model efficiency and aid in its operational implementation. Results from retrospective forecast model runs, using statistically downscaled temperature and precipitation forecasts from the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) model (2003-2006) will be examined. JF - 75th Annual Western Snow Conference T3 - Proceedings of the 75th Annual Western Snow Conference PB - Western Snow Conference CY - Kailua-Kona, HI UR - sites/westernsnowconference.org/PDFs/2007Harshburger.pdf ER - TY - Generic T1 - Evaluation of Model Enhancements and Probabilistic Forecasting Techniques for The Snowmelt Runoff Model T2 - 74th Annual Western Snow Conference Y1 - 2006 A1 - Harshburger, B.J. A1 - Moore, B.C. A1 - Blandford, T.R. A1 - Humes, K.S. A1 - Walden, V.P. A1 - Hruska, R. KW - Streamflow forecasts, ESP, SRM, Big Wood River Basin, antecedent temperature, forecast errors AB - Accurate streamflow forecasts are critical for the responsive management of water resource systems, which are designed and operated for the purposes of irrigation, flood control, and hydroelectric power generation. In the Western United States, water supplies are often derived form runoff due to snowmelt. The objective of this project is to develop an ensemble (probabilistic) prediction system for short to medium range streamflow forecasts (1 to 15 days). The hydrologic model used in this study is the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM), which is a conceptually-based model designed to simulate and forecast daily streamflow in mountain basins where snowmelt is a major contributor to runoff (Martinec et al., 1994). To optimize model efficiency and aid in its operational implementation, three enhancements have been made to the model. These enhancements are: 1) the use of an antecedent temperature index method to track snowpack cold-content and account for the delay in melt associated with diurnal refreezing, 2) the use of both maximum and minimum critical temperatures to partition precipitation into rain, snow, or rain/snow mixed, and 3) the stochastic modeling of forecast errors to generate streamflow ensembles, from which exceedence probabilities can be obtained. Results from retrospective model runs, using temperature and precipitation forecasts from NCEP GFS model (2000-2004) will be examined and used to identify the error in the streamflow forecasts. (Abstract only) JF - 74th Annual Western Snow Conference T3 - Proceedings of the 74th Annual Western Snow Conference PB - Western Snow Conference CY - Las Cruces, NM UR - sites/westernsnowconference.org/PDFs/2006Harshburger.pdf ER - TY - Generic T1 - Evaluation of Enhancements to the Snowmelt Runoff Model T2 - 73rd Annual Western Snow Conference Y1 - 2005 A1 - Harshburger, B.J. A1 - Blandford, T.R. A1 - Humes, K.S. A1 - Walden, V.P. A1 - Moore, B.C. KW - SRM, Big Wood River, degree days, SNOTEL, rain-on-snow AB - As part of a larger effort to develop tools for improved short-term (1-2 week) streamflow forecasting in snowmelt-dominated basins, the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) is used to simulate and forecast streamflow in the Big Wood River basin, Idaho. Several enhancements to SRM will be evaluated: a) a new method to estimate degree-days; b) new techniques used to assign and temporally update model parameters (degree-day factor and runoff coefficients) that make use of data from SNOTEL sites located within the basin and; c) the incorporation of relative humidity and wind speed data into a new (optional) model module designed to improve model performance during rain-on-snow events. Model results will be evaluated to determine the usefulness of these enhancements. JF - 73rd Annual Western Snow Conference T3 - Proceedings of the 73rd Annual Western Snow Conference PB - Western Snow Conference CY - Great Falls, MT UR - sites/westernsnowconference.org/PDFs/2005Harshburger.pdf ER -