TY - Generic T1 - Impact of Future Climate On Water Availability of Snowmelt-Dominated Watersheds of the Upper Rio Grande Basin T2 - 82nd Annual Western Snow Conference Y1 - 2014 A1 - Emile Elias A1 - Albert Rango A1 - Caiti Steele A1 - John F. Mejia KW - climate change KW - Rio Grande Basin KW - snowmelt runoff model KW - water resources AB -

Climate change is predicted to further limit the water availability of much of the arid southwestern U.S. In this study, the Snowmelt Runoff Model is used to evaluate the impacts of increased temperature and altered precipitation of a changed climate on snow covered area, streamflow timing and seasonal and total volume in the Upper Rio Grande. Simulations investigate a fairly hot and dry future condition at the end of the 21st century using a regionally recommended general circulation model downscaled to existing climate stations. Twenty-four subbasins of the Upper Rio Grande containing appreciable snowmelt and a long-term gauging station are simulated. Total basin snow covered area decreased by 55%due to future temperatures. SRM simulation shows that total annual 2099 volume for all basins was between 13% and 33% lower than 1999 total annual volume. Among the 24 basins there is considerable range in decrease in snow covered area (6-87%), total volume reduction (4-34%) and runoff timing shift (0-60 days early) indicating that climate change impacts are best evaluated at the subbasin scale in mountainous regions. Daily hydrographs for the snowmelt basins show higher streamflow in March and April, but less from mid-May until the end of the water year. SRM simulation provides a rapid and effective evaluation of the most resilient basins under a changed climate for planning and management purposes.

JF - 82nd Annual Western Snow Conference T3 - Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference CY - Durango, Colorado UR - sites/westernsnowconference.org/PDFs/2014Elias.pdf ER -