Value of water supply forecasts to irrigated agriculture

A linear programming model is applied to three study areas of irrigated agriculture to produce matrices of revenues at various combinations of forecast and actual water supplies. Optimization techniques reveal value of forecast accuracy and the impact of error on revenues. Empirical data indicate value of agricultural production, number of irrigated acres served and vulnerability to water shortages for each forecast point. Comination of these data reveal potential loss of agricultural production due to forecast error and to lack of forecast. For various assumptions as to supplemental water supply the model shows net benefit to irrigators of water supply forecasts.