Value of water supply forecasts to irrigated agriculture

TitleValue of water supply forecasts to irrigated agriculture
Publication TypeConference Proceedings
Year of Conference1977
AuthorsElliott, S. J.
Conference Name45th Annual Western Snow Conference
Series TitleProceedings of the 45th Annual Western Snow Conference
Date PublishedApril 1977
PublisherWestern Snow Conference
Conference LocationAlbuquerque, New Mexico
KeywordsEconomics of water supply forecasting, Snow survey economic benefits, Water supply forecasting

A linear programming model is applied to three study areas of irrigated agriculture to produce matrices of revenues at various combinations of forecast and actual water supplies. Optimization techniques reveal value of forecast accuracy and the impact of error on revenues. Empirical data indicate value of agricultural production, number of irrigated acres served and vulnerability to water shortages for each forecast point. Comination of these data reveal potential loss of agricultural production due to forecast error and to lack of forecast. For various assumptions as to supplemental water supply the model shows net benefit to irrigators of water supply forecasts.