An approach to forecasting the spring runoff in Quebec

An approach to the problem of forecasting spring runoff is described with particular reference to the conditions in the Gouin Reservoir in Quebec which has a capacity of 6.5 million acre-feet and regulates the flow for the 7 hydro-electric plants on the St. Maurice River with a total installation exceeding 2.0 million H.P. The preliminary work that led to the selection of the variables is described, the individual variables are examined, and the frequency functions are discussed. The main advantages of the described method are that (1) the assumption regarding the total length of the flood period becomes unnecessary, and (2) a better understanding of the nature of the variables that influence the volume of the spring runoff is achieved.