Improving water supply forecasts by limiting techniques

TitleImproving water supply forecasts by limiting techniques
Publication TypeConference Proceedings
Year of Conference1962
AuthorsKuehl, D. W.
Conference Name30th Annual Western Snow Conference
Series TitleProceedings of the 30th Annual Western Snow Conference
Date PublishedApril 1962
PublisherWestern Snow Conference
Conference LocationCheyenne, Wyoming
KeywordsWater supply forecasting

Water supply forecasts computed by objective procedures can be improved by modification prior to release by using methods based on several relationships. These techniques identify the forecasts which have a great probability of large errors and provide a basis for subjective quantitative adjustment. The relations are (1) adjacent basin plots, (2) carryover plots, (3) comparisons with auxiliary procedures of basically different derivations. The value of the method suggested increases in the unusual or abnormal year and tends to eliminate the possibility or reduce that magnitude of the 'big bust'.In discussion Mr. Harry I. Hunter cautions against using only procedure or independent variable for developing a water supply forecasting formula, and states that combination of variables may produces a more accurate and a better balanced forecast.