Improvements of forecasts by forecast experience or 'feel'

TitleImprovements of forecasts by forecast experience or 'feel'
Publication TypeConference Proceedings
Year of Conference1967
AuthorsMalsor, R. E.
Conference Name35th Annual Western Snow Conference
Series TitleProceedings of the 35th Annual Western Snow Conference
Date PublishedApril 1967
PublisherWestern Snow Conference
Conference LocationBoise, Idaho
KeywordsForecast accuracy, Water supply forecasting

A modification procedure for water supply forecasting is presented. The evaluation of intangible factors with apparently no mathematical evaluation numbers can be used for adjusting a computed forecast. The forecaster knows certain facts such as ‘no snow on south slopes’ -’general elevation of snow line as compared to similar years’ - ‘early spring runoff’ - knowledge of other local conditions. Such adjustments are termed the ‘feel’ of forecasting . Tables list some eleven forecasts with and without the ‘feel’ factor applied. Graphs illustrate the effects of the procedure.