Improvements of forecasts by forecast experience or 'feel'
Submitted by Armida on Fri, 02/15/2013 - 16:39
Title | Improvements of forecasts by forecast experience or 'feel' |
Publication Type | Conference Proceedings |
Year of Conference | 1967 |
Authors | Malsor, R. E. |
Conference Name | 35th Annual Western Snow Conference |
Series Title | Proceedings of the 35th Annual Western Snow Conference |
Date Published | April 1967 |
Publisher | Western Snow Conference |
Conference Location | Boise, Idaho |
Keywords | Forecast accuracy, Water supply forecasting |
Abstract | A modification procedure for water supply forecasting is presented. The evaluation of intangible factors with apparently no mathematical evaluation numbers can be used for adjusting a computed forecast. The forecaster knows certain facts such as ‘no snow on south slopes’ -’general elevation of snow line as compared to similar years’ - ‘early spring runoff’ - knowledge of other local conditions. Such adjustments are termed the ‘feel’ of forecasting . Tables list some eleven forecasts with and without the ‘feel’ factor applied. Graphs illustrate the effects of the procedure. |
URL | sites/westernsnowconference.org/PDFs/1967Malsor.pdf |