Opportunities and Limitations For Assessing Ski Area Vulnerability and Potential Low-Snow Adaptation Strategies in the Changing Climate

The ski industry in the United States is being threatened by climate change due to rising snowlines, earlier spring melt, and more winter precipitation falling as rain. Snow depth, duration, and timing all are critical factors in the number of skier visit days. The ski industry, worth over $10 billion nationally, is important for the economic vitality of mountain communities in thirty-seven states, but profits decline in warm, dry winters. There are limited climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies available to the industry. Artificial snowmaking is utilized to ameliorate the experience of limited snowfall but is energy-intensive, water-demanding, and has high upfront costs. In addition, artificial snowmaking may be limited by warming winter temperatures and, in certain basins, access to water in the next few decades. In order to better plan future investments in snowmaking equipment and other adaptations, climate projections are needed at a sub-regional scale. However, uncertainty and assumptions increase when downscaling from global climate models. Downscaling with Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues couples climate variables and is capable of accounting for complex terrain, and therefore offers the best projections for natural snow coverage and snowmaking viability by mid-century.