INCORPORATING SEASONAL STREAMFLOW FORECASTS INTO OPERATIONAL DECISIONMAKING

TitleINCORPORATING SEASONAL STREAMFLOW FORECASTS INTO OPERATIONAL DECISIONMAKING
Publication TypeConference Proceedings
Year of Conference2001
AuthorsWaage, M. D., Baldwin C. K., Steger R. G., and Bray T. J.
Conference Name69th Annual Western Snow Conference
Series TitleProceedings of the 69th Annual Western Snow Conference
Date PublishedApril 2001
PublisherWestern Snow Conference
Conference LocationSun Valley, Idaho
KeywordsOperational forecasting, Probabilistic forecasting
Abstract

Note: This paper is a companion to SEASONAL STREAMFLOW FORECASTING USING CLIMATE INFORMATION (Baldwin, this volume).Explosive population growth in the western U.S. and the resulting new demands on water systems require water system operators to squeeze more efficiency from their existing water systems. In mountainous areas of the west, most of the available water comes from snowmelt runoff. Improving snowmelt forecasting, including the lead-time of forecasts, can help meet the water challenges of population growth.One technique, developed by Utah State University for the city of Denver, shows promise. Based on climate indices from the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, probabilistic forecasts of the April through July runoff volume on the South Platte and Colorado rivers are made in the autumn. These forecasts have the potential to increase operating efficiency particularly to benefit secondary operating priorities such as hydropower generation, water- based recreation, and aquatic restoration programs. The forecasts are now being evaluated for use in operational decisionmaking. Forecasts made in the fall of 2000 along with the low water conditions prompted system operators to reduce winter hydropower generation and redistribute storage water. Spring runoff will show if these were good decisions. Research will continue this year into how to make the forecasts more understandable and useable by the water system operators.

URLsites/westernsnowconference.org/PDFs/2001Waage.pdf