An experiment in use of seasonal long-range weather forecasts for water supply forecases in northern California
Title | An experiment in use of seasonal long-range weather forecasts for water supply forecases in northern California |
Publication Type | Conference Proceedings |
Year of Conference | 1997 |
Authors | Roos, M., and Ross C. |
Conference Name | 65th Annual Western Snow Conference |
Series Title | Proceedings of the 65th Annual Western Snow Conference |
Date Published | May 1997 |
Publisher | Western Snow Conference |
Conference Location | Banff, Alberta |
Keywords | Long range, Streamflow forecasts, Weather forecasts |
Abstract | From 1978 through 1992 Scripps Institution of Oceanography made quarterly long-range weather forecasts of precipitation in the Sierra Nevada. The 15 year experiment showed some skill in the winter and spring season. In the 1980s an attempt was made to apply the skills that existed to an early season December 1 forecast of water year runoff on selected rivers. The methodology of adjusting the conventional runoff forecast and the conventional expected range of runoff (which are based on climatology for future weather) for the demonstrated weather forecasting skill will be described in the paper. Some test results are shown. Unfortunately, the weather forecasting skills declined during the period of hydrological testing to below the threshold of usefulness and the forecasting experiment was put aside for a later time. But we believe there is merit to documenting the methodology and results of this experiment for other professionals. |
URL | sites/westernsnowconference.org/PDFs/1997Roos.pdf |