An experiment in use of seasonal long-range weather forecasts for water supply forecases in northern California

TitleAn experiment in use of seasonal long-range weather forecasts for water supply forecases in northern California
Publication TypeConference Proceedings
Year of Conference1997
AuthorsRoos, M., and Ross C.
Conference Name65th Annual Western Snow Conference
Series TitleProceedings of the 65th Annual Western Snow Conference
Date PublishedMay 1997
PublisherWestern Snow Conference
Conference LocationBanff, Alberta
KeywordsLong range, Streamflow forecasts, Weather forecasts
Abstract

From 1978 through 1992 Scripps Institution of Oceanography made quarterly long-range weather forecasts of precipitation in the Sierra Nevada. The 15 year experiment showed some skill in the winter and spring season. In the 1980s an attempt was made to apply the skills that existed to an early season December 1 forecast of water year runoff on selected rivers. The methodology of adjusting the conventional runoff forecast and the conventional expected range of runoff (which are based on climatology for future weather) for the demonstrated weather forecasting skill will be described in the paper. Some test results are shown. Unfortunately, the weather forecasting skills declined during the period of hydrological testing to below the threshold of usefulness and the forecasting experiment was put aside for a later time. But we believe there is merit to documenting the methodology and results of this experiment for other professionals.

URLsites/westernsnowconference.org/PDFs/1997Roos.pdf