Application of principal components regression to streamflow forecasting
Title | Application of principal components regression to streamflow forecasting |
Publication Type | Conference Proceedings |
Year of Conference | 1996 |
Authors | Smith, S., and Weiss E. |
Conference Name | 64th Annual Western Snow Conference |
Series Title | Proceedings of the 64th Annual Western Snow Conference |
Date Published | April 1996 |
Publisher | Western Snow Conference |
Conference Location | Bend, Oregon |
Keywords | Forecasting, Regression, Statistical analysis |
Abstract | B.C. Hydro adapted the techniques of principal component regression, cross-validation and a systematic search for optimal combinations of variables (Garen, 1993), to try to improve to the statistical accuracy of stream- flow volume forecast equations for the glaciated Bridge River basin in British Columbia. The paper will discuss the trade-offs that B.C. Hydro made in balancing the improvements in forecast accuracy using these techniques against other factors, such as preserving continuity in forecast equation structure from month to month, preferring short-term stations located within the basin to longer term stations outside the basin, and using the thirty-year normals period ( 1961-90) versus the historical period of record. Results for the Bridge River system demonstrate the balance that can be achieved between optimizing forecast accuracy and selecting variables and stations which make the forecast equations more physically rational. |
URL | sites/westernsnowconference.org/PDFs/1996SmithB.pdf |