Predicting snow melt and streamflow volumes in the Arkansas River Basin of Colorado

The National Weather Service (NWS) and United States Geological Survey (USGS) are conducting a cooperative study to predict snowmelt in the Arkansas River Basin of Colorado. Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) is being used to model the study area. ESP combines statistical frequency analysis with conceptual computer modeling to produce probability forecasts. Observed historical streamflow, simulated historical streamflow, and conditional simulated streamflow, and conditional simulated streamflow are used to develop probability distributions for each data type.Inflow volumes are being predicted for Pueblo Reservoir, Colorado during the spring and summer runoff periods. These volumes will be used by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to maximize reservoir storage. A comparison is being made between NWS-Soil Conservation Service Water Supply Forecasts and Extended Streamflow Prediction at selected water supply forecast points.