A Modeling Approach to Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change and Mountain Pine Beetle Infestation on Water Resources in the Okanagan Basin, British Columbia

TitleA Modeling Approach to Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change and Mountain Pine Beetle Infestation on Water Resources in the Okanagan Basin, British Columbia
Publication TypeConference Proceedings
Year of Conference2010
AuthorsBorden, C., Delaney P., Ying Q., Kobor J., and Guy Brian
Conference Name78th Annual Western Snow Conference
Series TitleProceedings of the 78th Annual Western Snow Conference
Date PublishedApril 2010
PublisherWestern Snow Conference
Conference LocationLogan, UT
KeywordsMIKE, Okanagan Basin, distributed hydrologic modeling, climate change, water management
Abstract

Rapid population growth coupled with increasing agricultural demands from a burgeoning viticulture industry has resulted in a significant increase in water demand in the Okanagan Basin over the past few decades. Global Climate Model (GCM) predictions of increases in temperatures will likely result in significant decreases in winter snow accumulations and shifts in the timing and magnitude of the spring freshet from the high elevations. The forested areas in the basin are currently experiencing a large-scale mountain pine beetle infestation. The Okanagan Basin Water Board and its partners began a basin-wide study of the supply and demand of water resources in the basin in 2004. One component of this study is the construction of a numerical model of the basin using the distributed hydrologic model MIKE SHE. The model was calibrated to naturalized streamflow hydrographs, snow accumulation data, and independent estimates of lake evaporation and baseflow. The calibrated model provides the framework for evaluating a series of water supply scenarios involving the impacts of climate change, loss of forest cover due to beetle kills, and the combined effects of these two phenomena. The climate change scenarios are based on a series of IPCC scenarios and utilize statistically-downscaled GCM data that is available for the basin at a 500-meter resolution.

URLsites/westernsnowconference.org/PDFs/2010Borden.pdf