Computer-assisted avalanche forecasting: skier triggered avalanches

Computer-assisted avalanche forecasting has become a valuable tool in some forecasting operations in Canada. Avalanche forecasting models are based on statistical, numerical and/or rule-based methods, but usually predict natural rather than skier-triggered avalanches. A nearest neighbour forecasting model for skier-triggered avalanches on post storm weak layers was improved by adding snowpack properties including a stability index to meteorological variables. However, a skier stability index did not improve the forecasting success on storm snow instabilities. The best forecast could be achieved by using meteorological parameters.