Runoff forecasting for reservoir operations - the past and the future

TitleRunoff forecasting for reservoir operations - the past and the future
Publication TypeConference Proceedings
Year of Conference1982
AuthorsSpeers, D. D., and Versteeg J. D.
Conference Name50th Annual Western Snow Conference
Series TitleProceedings of the 50th Annual Western Snow Conference
Date PublishedApril 1982
PublisherWestern Snow Conference
Conference LocationReno, Nevada
KeywordsModels - snowmelt, Water Supply Forecasting

Two techniques of long range water supply forecasting are compared for the Detroit Dam watershed, a 'rain-on-snow' basin in Western Oregon. A traditional multiple regression procedure has been employed to forecast spring runoff, which is of operational interest for refill of the reservoir. The second approach involves the use of a continuous, conceptual hydrologic model, the SSARR model. Comparing an 11 year test period, a similar degree of accuracy was achieved with each type of forecast. The paper illustrates, however, that the use of a hydrologic model can provide advantages over the statistical forcast, namely: (1) improved accuracy in a real-time setting through continuous adjustments of model parameters to observed conditions; (2) a greater variety of forecast products, including short term flood forecasts and probabalistic estimates incorporating a reservoir model.