Runoff forecasting for reservoir operations - the past and the future
Title | Runoff forecasting for reservoir operations - the past and the future |
Publication Type | Conference Proceedings |
Year of Conference | 1982 |
Authors | Speers, D. D., and Versteeg J. D. |
Conference Name | 50th Annual Western Snow Conference |
Series Title | Proceedings of the 50th Annual Western Snow Conference |
Date Published | April 1982 |
Publisher | Western Snow Conference |
Conference Location | Reno, Nevada |
Keywords | Models - snowmelt, Water Supply Forecasting |
Abstract | Two techniques of long range water supply forecasting are compared for the Detroit Dam watershed, a 'rain-on-snow' basin in Western Oregon. A traditional multiple regression procedure has been employed to forecast spring runoff, which is of operational interest for refill of the reservoir. The second approach involves the use of a continuous, conceptual hydrologic model, the SSARR model. Comparing an 11 year test period, a similar degree of accuracy was achieved with each type of forecast. The paper illustrates, however, that the use of a hydrologic model can provide advantages over the statistical forcast, namely: (1) improved accuracy in a real-time setting through continuous adjustments of model parameters to observed conditions; (2) a greater variety of forecast products, including short term flood forecasts and probabalistic estimates incorporating a reservoir model. |
URL | sites/westernsnowconference.org/PDFs/1982Speers.pdf |