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Making observations and models agree in spring snowmelt forecasting
Submitted by Armida on Fri, 02/15/2013 - 15:27
|Making observations and models agree in spring snowmelt forecasting
|Year of Conference
|Bissell, V. C., and Orwig C. E.
|52nd Annual Western Snow Conference
|Proceedings of the 52nd Annual Western Snow Conference
|Western Snow Conference
|Sun Valley, Idaho
|Daily adjustment of models, Flood warning, Forecasts, Reservoir operation, Simulation model, Snow melt, Water management, Water supply
No matter how well a hydrologic simulation model performs, results will inevitably differ from observed values in all but a few instances. In using the SSAARR model for snowmelt runoff forecasting, several 'knobs' are tweaked to keep the model in tune with observed conditions. Items for which close tracking is maintained are observed precipatation and temperature, discharge, snow covered area, melt rate, basin responsiveness to melt (and rain), and accumulated and residual seasonal runoff. Accessible model state variables and parameters are adjusted on a daily basis for individual basins within the Columbia basin. Forecasted downstream flows are summed to keep a close check on accumulated and residual flow at major flow points. Forecasts on the Boise River system during the spring of 1983 are discussed as examples.