Making observations and models agree in spring snowmelt forecasting

TitleMaking observations and models agree in spring snowmelt forecasting
Publication TypeConference Proceedings
Year of Conference1984
AuthorsBissell, V. C., and Orwig C. E.
Conference Name52nd Annual Western Snow Conference
Series TitleProceedings of the 52nd Annual Western Snow Conference
Date PublishedApril 1984
PublisherWestern Snow Conference
Conference LocationSun Valley, Idaho
KeywordsDaily adjustment of models, Flood warning, Forecasts, Reservoir operation, Simulation model, Snow melt, Water management, Water supply

No matter how well a hydrologic simulation model performs, results will inevitably differ from observed values in all but a few instances. In using the SSAARR model for snowmelt runoff forecasting, several 'knobs' are tweaked to keep the model in tune with observed conditions. Items for which close tracking is maintained are observed precipatation and temperature, discharge, snow covered area, melt rate, basin responsiveness to melt (and rain), and accumulated and residual seasonal runoff. Accessible model state variables and parameters are adjusted on a daily basis for individual basins within the Columbia basin. Forecasted downstream flows are summed to keep a close check on accumulated and residual flow at major flow points. Forecasts on the Boise River system during the spring of 1983 are discussed as examples.