A modern forecast for Columbia River at Birchbank, B. C.

TitleA modern forecast for Columbia River at Birchbank, B. C.
Publication TypeConference Proceedings
Year of Conference1956
AuthorsNelson, M. W., and Simons W. D.
Conference Name24th Annual Western Snow Conference
Series TitleProceedings of the 24th Annual Western Snow Conference
Date PublishedApril 1956
PublisherWestern Snow Conference
Conference LocationPenticton, British Columbia
KeywordsBaseflow, Forecasting

A highly refined and straight forward procedure is described for developing seasonal (April-Sept.) water supply forecasting formulas for the Columbia River at Birchbank, B.C. The formulas are checked by 3 years of data NOT included in the data used to develop the equation.For the April first forecast a formula was developed using 7 snow survey courses and base flow of the river as of November 1. Current values for these variables are available to the forecaster on April first.For the May first forecast a third variable was added, the precipitation data of April, the average of 7 stations was computed. On June first a fourth variable was added, the May precipitation from the same 7 stations was averaged. For the three comparative years the average error for the April forecast was 5.5%; May forecast 3.9%; June 3.3%.Table shows the array of data used in the formula development and accuracy comparisons are shown.