A modern forecast for Columbia River at Birchbank, B. C.
Title | A modern forecast for Columbia River at Birchbank, B. C. |
Publication Type | Conference Proceedings |
Year of Conference | 1956 |
Authors | Nelson, M. W., and Simons W. D. |
Conference Name | 24th Annual Western Snow Conference |
Series Title | Proceedings of the 24th Annual Western Snow Conference |
Date Published | April 1956 |
Publisher | Western Snow Conference |
Conference Location | Penticton, British Columbia |
Keywords | Baseflow, Forecasting |
Abstract | A highly refined and straight forward procedure is described for developing seasonal (April-Sept.) water supply forecasting formulas for the Columbia River at Birchbank, B.C. The formulas are checked by 3 years of data NOT included in the data used to develop the equation.For the April first forecast a formula was developed using 7 snow survey courses and base flow of the river as of November 1. Current values for these variables are available to the forecaster on April first.For the May first forecast a third variable was added, the precipitation data of April, the average of 7 stations was computed. On June first a fourth variable was added, the May precipitation from the same 7 stations was averaged. For the three comparative years the average error for the April forecast was 5.5%; May forecast 3.9%; June 3.3%.Table shows the array of data used in the formula development and accuracy comparisons are shown. |
URL | sites/westernsnowconference.org/PDFs/1956Nelson.pdf |