Analysis of water supply forecast accuracy

As part of a Federal interagency study to consider placing hydrometeorologic stations in wilderness areas of the Colorado River Basin, an analysis is being made of the factors contributing to errors in the forecasts. These factors include errors because of uncertainty in future climate (i.e. uncertainty in long-range weather events), limitations of data networks and limitations of forecast models. A statistical rationale is being developed to estimate these errors and to predict how these errors might be reduced by various improvements in data networks, models, and climate forecasts. This paper presents the early stages of development of the rationale and discusses the current status of the analytical methods being used.